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Key New Mexico sectors up in the air with another Trump presidency, new state legislators

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Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump walks from his private plane to a rally at a CSI Aviation hangar near the Albuquerque International Sunport before the 2024 election.

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Anti-immigration sentiment, drilling, tariffs and a Democratically controlled New Mexico Legislature trying to maintain its policies.

The 2024 election saw a lot of campaign promises from President-elect Donald Trump and the incoming New Mexican elected state officials 鈥 many of them contradictory 鈥 leaving business leaders scratching their heads as they try to anticipate next year鈥檚 regulatory climate.

While Republicans swept the White House and both chambers of Congress, the opposite happened in Santa Fe with Democrats controlling the governor鈥檚 mansion, the Roundhouse and the state鈥檚 federal delegation.

Being in the minority under an infamously vindictive president represents New Mexico鈥檚 first challenge.

鈥淚 won鈥檛 sugarcoat it: The return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House presents incredible challenges for New Mexico and we must take those threats seriously,鈥 U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., said in a statement to the Journal.

But the new regulatory landscape is not without opportunity for New Mexico businesses.

Business

Looking on a state level, New Mexico鈥檚 top business leaders are feeling both eager and cautious to see so many new policymakers at the Legislature 鈥 28 in all.

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Rhiannon Samuel

鈥淲e are always looking for candidates that are moderate and are pro-business, and so we believe that we have a composition that we can get a lot done going into 鈥25,鈥 said Rhiannon Samuel, the executive director of NAIOP New Mexico, a commercial real estate development organization with upwards of 275 members consisting of real estate professionals, owners and developers.

Others hold more concern.

鈥淚 think it might even be more difficult this year than in previous years because of so many new people,鈥 said Ernie CdeBaca, president and CEO of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce. With about 1,250 members, the Hispano Chamber is the largest chamber of commerce in the state and one of the largest Hispanic chambers in the country.

CdeBaca said he鈥檚 worried it鈥檒l be difficult for all the new legislators to immediately jump into a 60-day session.

He鈥檚 concerned, he said, that progressive legislators will try to push an agenda that 鈥渕ight be difficult for some businesses to stomach.鈥

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Ernie CdeBaca

For example, legislation to require most businesses to provide paid family and medical leave has failed multiple times in the Roundhouse. It鈥檚 expected to be introduced again this year, and with the 60-day session not being limited to budget discussions or topics the governor deems germane, there could be more room to get the bill through compared to previous shorter sessions.

CdeBaca said more regulation is not what the business community needs.

He suggested legislators step back and conduct nonpartisan studies to understand how to grow business in New Mexico. He pointed to the state鈥檚 national labs, Air Force bases, technology and higher education institutes 鈥 鈥渁nd (yet) we rank 49th and 50th in some of the economic indicators?" he said. 鈥淲e almost have to try to be that bad. I mean, I don't understand it.鈥

For the commercial Realtors, Samuel said she鈥檒l be watching if, New Mexico being a blue state surrounded by red states, policymakers start leaning more left of center or will work more toward moderate policy.

鈥淏usiness is not Republican or Democrat,鈥 Samuel said. 鈥淏usiness is pro-people. It's pro-community. And oftentimes that is in line with a moderate way of thinking.鈥

In terms of specific policies, Samuel said NAIOP will go after concrete timelines on administration reviews of commercial projects, as it has in the past, and will watch for any legislation on the state鈥檚 tax code, which she said 鈥渞eally needs a hard look.鈥

She said the organization will also support site readiness legislation, an effort to make more land in the state shovel-ready for companies to move in and set up. It can take years for companies to get up and running in New Mexico, because of utility restrictions and long wait times for obtaining materials, a nationwide issue that鈥檚 particularly exacerbated in New Mexico compared to surrounding states.

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Dust blows through the air at a construction site in West Albuquerque in late February.

鈥淚f we can have predictability on how long it's even going to take to put something in place, whether it's predictive or it's a sure thing, that welcomes people to New Mexico,鈥 Samuel said.

New Mexico has a 鈥渢remendous amount of underutilized鈥 state lands and facilities, said Adam Silverman, the vice president and principal of local real estate developer Geltmore and incoming president of NAIOP New Mexico. He鈥檇 like the Legislature to discuss public-private partnerships to solve this.

In October, the Albuquerque City Council overwhelmingly failed to pass a bill that would create a fee for owners of buildings that are vacant and dilapidated. Silverman wants to see a state-level bill with a similar effort enacted.

He personally wants the Legislature to reconsider eminent domain in Metropolitan Redevelopment Areas for private use, which the state briefly allowed in the 2000s. Silverman explained that if Metro Redevelopment Agencies could take properties that have been vacant for decades in areas that are blighted and sell them to nonprofits or private Realtors, work could get done to transform the buildings into something helpful like housing.

鈥淭he government needs to come in and say, 鈥榃e will get it appraised. We will pay you this money. You can go do whatever you want,'" Silverman said. 鈥淎nd then they put it out to (a request for proposals) to anyone in the public sector."

CdeBaca said he鈥檚 hopeful for New Mexico鈥檚 future. He grew up in Los Alamos, and he can鈥檛 imagine living anywhere else, he said.

鈥淚n spite of ourselves, almost, I think New Mexico is going to prosper,鈥 he said.

Trade and immigration

New Mexico is in a 鈥渁 wait-and-see kind of mood鈥 in terms of what will happen with the border, according to Jerry Pacheco, the executive director of the International Business Accelerator and the president of the Border Industrial Association in Santa Teresa.

Santa Teresa鈥檚 industrial base accounts for about 63% of New Mexico鈥檚 total exports, most of which is bound for Mexico.

Port of entry set to implement next-generation tech (copy)
A cargo truck enters Mexico through the Santa Teresa port of entry in southern New Mexico.

One major concern for Pacheco is how Trump鈥檚 administration will deal with trade in general.

Trump has widely talked about imposing a flat tariff of 10-20% on all imports as well as imposing additional tariffs, ranging from 60-200%, on goods from Mexico or China. Pacheco said that would only hurt the U.S. economy and encouraged the business community to put pressure on the political administration against such policies.

Millions of American jobs are dependent on trade with Mexico, he said. In 2023, the U.S. traded nearly $800 billion in goods and services with Mexico.

鈥淢exico should not be thought of as an adverse adversary,鈥 Pacheco said. 鈥淭hey should be thought of as a good neighbor.鈥

Heinrich called the proposal for increased tariffs 鈥渘othing short of reckless鈥 and said it could drive up prices on everyday goods like groceries, 鈥減utting an added financial burden on hardworking families who are already seeing rising costs.鈥

Anti-immigration rhetoric also affects the workforce in New Mexico.

Immigrants in New Mexico are filling workforce gaps in laborious fields, like agriculture and construction. It would be like 鈥渢aking a pistol and shooting ourselves in the foot鈥 to make the U.S. an unwelcoming country for immigrants, Pacheco said.

鈥淵ou can come out here in the summer, down at the border, and it's 107 degrees, and you will hear people speaking Spanish on top of a roof that they're repairing, and I imagine it's a pretty good guess that those are immigrants,鈥 he said.

Communities like Santa Teresa that are nearly entirely made up of Hispanic or Mexican-American populations, making immigration a particularly sensitive issue, Pacheco noted.

Still, Trump鈥檚 campaign heavily catered to the Hispanic vote, and the president-elect saw record gains compared to four years ago when he ran against President Joe Biden.

CdeBaca said he thinks people are going to start paying a lot more attention to the Hispanic and Latino vote 鈥渂ecause it鈥檚 growing like crazy.鈥

He said Hispanics are not only growing the nation鈥檚 voter base but also its economy. CdeBaca referenced Trump鈥檚 visit to New Mexico, when the then-presidential candidate polled the audience on if they preferred the term Hispanic or Latino.

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Former President Donald Trump pumps up the crowd during a rally at a CSI Aviation hangar in Albuquerque.

鈥淚 think the first 100 days are going to be very interesting to see what really happens,鈥 CdeBaca said. 鈥淚t's kind of hard to gauge, because he's made so many promises, and so many things that are so difficult to do and some that are supposedly out of his control.鈥

Pacheco also said port infrastructure needs to stay modernized to keep up with cross-border trade demand.

鈥淲e think it's a no-brainer because trade with Mexico is skyrocketing. Mexico is our No. 1 partner, not just for the 近距离内射合集 States, but for New Mexico.鈥

Oil and gas

鈥楧rill, baby, drill.鈥

Trump has heavily leaned on that 2008-era Republican campaign slogan. But what does it actually mean for New Mexico, the nation鈥檚 second-largest oil producer?

Probably not much, according to Jim Peach, a former economics professor emeritus at New Mexico State University who has been watching the oil and gas industry for decades.

Jim Peach
Jim Peach

The U.S. federal government doesn鈥檛 drill for oil, Peach said, unlike other countries; that鈥檚 up to the private industry. And much of the federal land in the Permian Basin 鈥 one of the best spots in the world for oil exploration 鈥 is already leased. It鈥檚 also not in the best interest for the oil industry to drastically increase the supply of oil in the current market, Peach said, where increased supply would lower prices and hurt the industry.

鈥溾楧rill, baby, drill鈥 is not going to happen. I'm pretty confident with that,鈥 he said.

While production might not ramp up as a result of Trump鈥檚 presidency, there are a few other concrete things that could happen. Peach pointed to the likelihood that Trump will open up the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to drilling and weaken or even eliminate fees oil and gas companies have to pay for releasing methane into the atmosphere, a practice known as flaring.

Even then, Peach said it鈥檚 not like operators brag about the practice.

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Oil and gas wells operate and flare in New Mexico鈥檚 Lea County in May.

鈥淚'm not pro-industry. I'm not anti-industry. I just don't know anyone who just loves to flare gas. It is clearly not only environmentally damaging, it's a waste of an economic resource,鈥 he said.

On a state level, the oil and gas industry has long been a major player in state government, as it contributes around 40% of state revenues in oil boom periods. But with almost the same political makeup of the Legislature, Peach said he doesn鈥檛 think much will change in terms of policies and regulation over the fossil fuel industry.

In recent years, policymakers have failed to pass a variety of stricter oil and gas regulations. In 2024, proposals for changes to the Oil and Gas Act and to raise royalty rates both died, the first of which didn鈥檛 even make it to the floor.

鈥淚'll end with, don't worry about 鈥榙rill, baby, drill鈥 because we don't know what on earth that might mean,鈥 Peach said.

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Pump jacks extract oil at a site north of Eunice on May 7.