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The Rio Ruidoso is a small creek that meanders from Sierra Blanca Peak into and through the village of Ruidoso. Those traversing the Rio Ruidoso may get their knees wet, but not much more.

But when storms drop excessive rain on the Sierra Blanca mountain range, the Rio Ruidoso and its tributaries can fill fast, flooding the valley below. Since the South Fork and Salt fires decimated the forests along the mountainside in 2024, water can rush into the creek beds at an even higher rate.

The Rio Ruidoso is flooding more frequently and more fiercely than ever before.

Researchers observing the Rio Ruidoso鈥檚 water level at the Hollywood crossing within the village had measured the river鈥檚 height above 10 feet only once 鈥� in July 2008 鈥� before two summers ago.

Then came the fires. Since then, the Rio Ruidoso has crested at or over 10 feet seven times, including a record-breaking 20.24 feet on July 8, according to preliminary data from the National Weather Service. Three people died as a result of that flood.

鈥楢lmost a worst-case scenario鈥�

Heading into the weekend, more than 80% (166 of 200 reports) of observed flooding events in the NWS Albuquerque Office鈥檚 region have been in the village.

On Sunday afternoon, the weather service issued its 28th flood warning of the year for Ruidoso. The village received rains in the South Fork burn scar areas that prompted temporary road closures, village spokesperson Kerry Gladden said.

NWS is forecasting additional rain on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

鈥淚t is a large enough community built right around the Rio Ruidoso and Cedar Creek drainage basins that have seen numerous flooding surges last year, and again this year,鈥� Todd Shoemake, a meteorologist for Albuquerque NWS, said in an email. 鈥淎nd it is almost a worst-case scenario.鈥�

Most of the flood events this year, and the year prior, are related to the burn scars.

鈥淎fter a wildfire, the (ground) is hydrophobic, meaning that water will just run off,鈥� said Joe Galewsky, professor and department chair of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of New Mexico. 鈥淩ather than vegetation collecting the water and allowing it to soak in and have its time to run off over time, it runs off really fast, so you get these really sharp increases in the water depth in river channels.鈥�

The topography around Ruidoso also leads to flooding, Galewsky said. Water vapor from the western Gulf of California and the eastern Gulf of Mexico gets caught on the mountains, he said.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 enough to trigger these big thunderstorms that give rise to these floods,鈥� Galewsky said. 鈥淪ometimes with mountainous topography, thunderstorms can kind of get stuck over one place.鈥�

Additionally, according to UNM doctoral student Zachary Strasberg, the effects of climate change are making monsoons worse. Long-term drought can weaken soil stability, heighten wildfire risk and put more water in the atmosphere, exacerbating flooding events.

鈥淚f you just look at it collectively, research has shown that this is a historically bad, historically dry period in the history of the Western U.S.,鈥� said Strasberg, who is currently working on a thesis surrounding droughts in the Southwest.

What鈥檚 next?

Burn scars can take years to heal. Douglas Cram, an extension forest and fire specialist at New Mexico State University, said a scar left by a high intensity fire could require three years to recover.

The issue is vegetation. Or lack thereof.

鈥淲hen it comes to reforestation, you can鈥檛 just go and put a lot of seeds in the ground, because the rains could come again, they could get washed away, and the soil is still pretty denuded at this point in those areas,鈥� said George Ducker, a public information specialists for the New Mexico Forestry Division. 鈥淏ut reforestation is definitely something that everybody鈥檚 looking forward to, but I think right now we鈥檙e waiting for a natural green up to happen on those slopes.鈥�

The forestry division has begun restoration efforts in the South Fork and Salt burn scars, such as felling dead and hazardous trees, soil stabilization and setting up buffers to hopefully catch sediment as water flows down the mountain.

Ducker said winter snow pack would help springtime 鈥済reen up鈥� and this time next year the division could be considering replanting efforts in the burn scar.

鈥淚 think next year we鈥檒l be looking to see what we can do to continue to improve that area, and downhill,鈥� Ducker said. 鈥淧otential flood effects will definitely be on everyone鈥檚 mind.鈥�