近距离内射合集

Albuquerque business owner Janet Prochnow was amazed at the turnout for SCORE鈥檚 inaugural New Mexico Business Growth Summit on Thursday.

鈥淚t鈥檚 entrepreneur heaven,鈥� Prochnow said as she packed into the Berna Facio Professional Development Center alongside roughly 200 other business officials.

Kicking off the summit was Bank of America Senior U.S. Economist Stephen Juneau, who gave attendees his economic forecast and spoke on how tax policy, Federal Reserve decisions and artificial intelligence investment are shaping where the country is headed.

A consistent theme of Juneau鈥檚 message: resilience.

The U.S. economy has undergone several shocks over the past few years. There were inflationary pressures following the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, interest rate hikes and tariff wars. Juneau said the U.S. economy has absorbed them all, and despite economists projecting recession, it ultimately grew by 2% last year.

The latest economic shock has been the conflict with Iran and the high energy prices it has created. But Juneau said he expects the economy to absorb that shock, too, because larger tax refunds that consumers are seeing and a rise in fuel-efficient vehicles are offsetting increases at the pump.

鈥淲e project that this resiliency will continue moving forward,鈥� Juneau said, citing his confidence in the nation鈥檚 鈥渧ery healthy鈥� job market.

鈥淎 stable labor market basically supports stable consumption,鈥� he added. 鈥淲hat we鈥檝e learned in economics is that you don鈥檛 bet against the U.S. consumer. As long as we鈥檙e employed, we go out and spend our money and drive the economy forward.鈥�

Juneau said economists project that AI investment will continue contributing to the economy鈥檚 growth this year and next.

鈥淲e鈥檙e in relatively early innings. We鈥檙e not at a point where they鈥檙e oversupplying data centers. We need more compute power; we don鈥檛 need less,鈥� Juneau said, adding that while he currently only uses AI about 5% of the time, he anticipates using it 50 to 75% of the time in the future. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 probably where we鈥檙e headed.鈥�

But with more growth, stubborn inflation could continue to pose a problem and force the Fed to consider raising interest rates, despite last month, Juneau said.

The Fed sets the country鈥檚 monetary policy and is responsible for maintaining maximum employment while stabilizing prices to keep inflation at 2%. It does so through a variety of tools, including controlling how much banks can lend and setting interest rates.

When interest rates are lowered, people often spend and borrow more money, which increases demand and can prompt businesses to raise prices. The Fed will sometimes raise rates to stifle spending, cool demand and drive inflation down.

鈥淩ight now, we have 3.3% inflation, and (the Fed has) missed (its) target for five-plus years,鈥� Juneau said. 鈥淪o we think the Fed鈥檚 going to be forced to basically hike rates over the coming months.鈥�

If that happens, Juneau said AI investment likely won鈥檛 slow, but housing investment and consumer spending on durable goods will. He said it鈥檚 鈥渦nfortunately鈥� the way Fed policy works but that economists believe a hike wouldn鈥檛 slow down the economy too much because consumers have 鈥減roven that we can survive in a higher-rate environment.鈥�

But Juneau said he understands if consumers and business owners don鈥檛 feel as optimistic, adding that sentiment can often differ from what the data shows.

鈥淯nfortunately, you kind of have to weather those moments as a business owner and know that industries have their own cycles to them that can differ from the national cycle,鈥� Juneau said. He said his best advice for New Mexico business owners is to stay in the loop and prepare as much as possible.

鈥淛ust always be aware of the risk. Be mindful of higher interest rates and what that could mean for your business, and try (to) plan for that,鈥� Juneau said.

Kylie Garcia covers retail and real estate for the Journal. You can reach her at kgarcia@abqjournal.com.