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NEWS

Firefighters make progress on state's largest wildfires as thunderstorms raise risk of new starts, flooding

Summer monsoons expected to intensify in coming months

Lightning and monsoon rains can be seen from the Langmuir Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, which is at the top of the Magdalena Mountain Range in the Cibola National Forest, in an undated file photo.
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New Mexico’s proverbial wildfire warning since the early 2020s — “wildfire preparedness is year-round” — appears to be bearing out in real time so far this year. As soon as one fire is controlled, another has sparked elsewhere, sending wildland crews from one blaze to the next.

The state’s encroaching monsoon season brings other concerns: lightning-caused fires and post-fire effects, like debris flows, mudslides and flooding, placing demands on hydrologists, soil scientists, geologists and engineers.

That’s where New Mexico fire and land managers find themselves this month as their annual game of whack-a-mole with potentially catastrophic fires on an overgrown landscape gives way to the state’s stormy season.

Firefighters made "significant progress" over the weekend on the 4,728-acre Beehive Fire burning 15 miles west of Tres Piedras. The black outline on the map shows how much of the fire has been contained as of Monday. The red line shows the portion still uncontained.

Randall Hergert, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said monsoon weather in the forecast for central and western New Mexico in coming days portends “a twofold benefit and danger.”

“The initial response might be, ‘That’s good. We can get some rain on the burn scars, and kind of help put out those fires,’” he said. “But as we saw with the South Fork Fire in Ruidoso a couple years ago, we got some pretty good storms over that burn scar that helped put it out, but it also caused flash flooding.”

Legislators last month toured a section of the more than 15,000-acre burn scar from the South Fork Fire, where the state is still working to repair infrastructure that takes a beating each summer when monsoon season arrives.

“It’s not just the trees and vegetation that burn,” Hergert explained, “it’s also the soil that turns into an impervious surface, kind of like asphalt in a parking lot. So the rain is just not able to get absorbed into the ground very well, and so it runs off very quickly.”

Officials are warning people around New Mexico to exercise caution around new and old burn scars this summer as thunderstorms increase in frequency. The state’s monsoon season typically starts in mid-June and runs through late September, bringing several inches of rain to the state and raising the specter of flash flooding.

“And this can happen in areas where it didn’t used to do it before,” Hergert warned. “So if there’s any residents nearby, they might not be used to this happening or might not expect it with a thunderstorm they have seen in the past every summer.”

With more than 500 wildfires in New Mexico so far this year alone, according to the state, there are now thousands more acres of state, federal and private land prone to flooding danger.

That will soon include scars from wildfires still burning, such as the 4,728-acre Beehive Fire west of Tres Piedras in northern New Mexico and the 9,349-acre Sacaton Fire burning in Gila National Forest. The Beehive Fire was 97% contained — or surrounded by fireline — as of Tuesday while the Sacaton Fire was 17% contained.

The cause of the Beehive Fire is still under investigation. But fire managers believe the Sacaton Fire was caused by a lightning strike, which can occur with or without rainfall during New Mexico’s monsoon season, Hergert said.

“There’s a moderate to high risk of mostly dry thunderstorms over the western half of the state over the next week or so,” he said. “So that’s definitely going to increase the risk of dry lightning being able to start new fires over the next week.”

Meteorologists are also keeping a close eye on the recent McCauley Springs Fire, which burned around 712 acres along N.M. 4 between Jemez Springs and Los Alamos.

Hergert said high-pressure systems, or heat domes, that produce the North American summer monsoons are expected to intensify in coming months.

“We’re seeing good signs of a really strong one developing over Utah and Colorado next week,” he said. “So that’s bad news for those folks to our north — they’re going to get a lot of heat — but it’s also going to open the door for some moisture from the Gulf to come up through Texas into eastern New Mexico and central New Mexico next week.”

John Miller is the Journal’s northern New Mexico correspondent. He can be reached at jmiller@abqjournal.com.