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Second Trump term big topic during U.S.-Mexico relations discussion

US-Mexico relations panel discusion

From left, Rafael Vel谩zquez, a professor from Autonomous University of Baja California; Abelardo Rodr铆guez Sumano and Jorge Schiavon, both professors at the Universidad Iberoamericana, a private Catholic institution in Mexico City, listen to a question during a panel discussion on U.S.-Mexico relations Monday.

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The reelection of Donald Trump and what his second presidential term could mean for U.S.-Mexico relations loomed large during a panel discussion between diplomats and academics on Monday at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque.

The discussion was cosponsored by the venue, the University of New Mexico鈥檚 Latin American and Iberian Institute and the Mexican consulate.

Patricia Pinz贸n S谩nchez, Consul of Mexico in Albuquerque, moderated a discussion between three panelists, each who gave his own presentation before taking questions from her and the audience. Two of the panelists were Jorge Schiavon and Abelardo Rodr铆guez Sumano, both professors at the Universidad Iberoamericana, a private Catholic institution in Mexico City. The third, Rafael Vel谩zquez, is a professor hailing from Autonomous University of Baja California.

鈥淔or its nature and complexity, this is one of the most challenging relations worldwide,鈥 S谩nchez said during her remarks to kick off the discussion.

Their discussion came as the two countries recently elected new leaders. Trump was reelected as U.S. president on Nov. 5 and will become the first nonconsecutive two-term president since Grover Cleveland. Claudia Sheinbaum became Mexico鈥檚 first female president and took office on Oct. 1. In a statement following Trump鈥檚 victory, Sheinbaum said there would be 鈥済ood relations鈥 between the two countries, while asking Trump for dialogue and respect for sovereignty.

Trump, who has demonized immigrants since he launched his first campaign for president in 2016, has previously has pledged to secure the southern U.S. border and asked Mexico to pay for a wall. In a second administration, he has pledged to involve the military in a mass deportation campaign of illegal immigrants.

On Monday, Vel谩zquez outlined possible scenarios of the relationship that could play out between Mexico and the U.S. in a second Trump administration. But Vel谩zquez was careful to preface his presentation by saying, 鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to tell you (what鈥檚 going to happen) because it鈥檚 very difficult to predict.鈥

One scenario involves Trump putting pressure on Sheinbaum and seeing her cooperate on issues of on migration, border security and economic interdependence,{/span} Vel谩zquez said. There could be deportations of Mexican immigrants, but 鈥渘ot in huge numbers,鈥 he said. Some changes could be made to the 近距离内射合集 States鈥揗exico鈥揅anada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020.

A disruptive scenario between the two countries could involve more conflict in relations, with the Steinbaum administration not willing to cooperate with Trump, Vel谩zquez said. Deportation of Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. could come in 鈥渉uge numbers鈥 and the USMC agreement could be canceled outright, he said.

But there could be an alternative scenario in which relations involve 鈥渁 mix鈥 of the two other scenarios, Vel谩zquez said.

Sumano superimposed a 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥 ballcap that was a signature of the Trump campaign on an informational slide during his presentation, but he could hardly be mistaken as a supporter during his remarks. He spoke of challenges Mexico could face in dealing with Trump, including not just his 鈥淎merica First鈥 rhetoric, but a tariff plan to drive up the price of imports to make American goods more appealing, as well as the potential of a 鈥渕ilitary conflict with Mexico.鈥

Schiavon put Mexico鈥檚 relationship with the U.S. into perspective. Twenty-six Mexican consulates are in the four border states. The U.S. is Mexico鈥檚 biggest trading partner. Thirty-eight million people of Mexican origin live in the U.S.

Schiavon also talked about Trump鈥檚 agenda, noting he is going to be a 鈥渧ery powerful鈥 president having won the Electoral College, the popular vote, both houses of Congress and a majority of conservative justices in the U.S. Supreme Court.

When S谩nchez asked the panel where U.S.-Mexico relations stand with the election of Trump, Schiavon said he believes there is a 鈥渉igh level鈥 of distrust between Mexico and the U.S.

鈥淪o we do have to work at that,鈥 Schiavon said.

Zachary Quintero, executive director of the National Hispanic Cultural Center, closed out the panel discussion, by saying, 鈥淲hat an exciting talk. We do live in exciting times.鈥