近距离内射合集

When preparing to make NFL wagers on who will win Super Bowl LXI, squads with long odds shouldn't be ignored. Not by a long shot.

The 2025 season was a (mega) prime example of why.

Six of the eight teams that won division titles had preseason Super Bowl odds of 40-1 or longer, with Carolina at 150-1. None of those teams were even listed as having a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.

On the other hand, there were four teams favored in division races that had 8-1 Super Bowl odds or shorter. Only Philadelphia finished first in its division. Baltimore and Kansas City didn't reach the postseason.

Included among the long-shot division winners was eventual league champion Seattle. The Seahawks went off at 60-1 and were forecast to finish last in the NFC West. No team had won the title with longer preseason odds this century.

And in the AFC, conference champion New England had odds of 80-1 to start the year, with that number ballooning to 125-1 after its 1-2 start. The Patriots wound up with a 14-3 record after going 4-13 a year earlier. That 10-game improvement from one year to the next matches the greatest jump in league history.

So it appears anything can happen.

A lesson to be remembered

In the 1999 season the Rams, then based in St. Louis, came from beyond nowhere to claim the title with a 23-16 championship game victory over the Tennessee Titans.

Rams fans will never forget that season. And Titans backers, who had them at 50-1 for the title, will never forget that game. (GRRRR!)

To set the stage, LA was coming off a 4-12 campaign and opened with Super odds of 150-1. But that was before starting QB Trent Green suffered a season-ending injury in an exhibition game. That resulted in coach Dick Vermeil reluctantly inserting former grocery store stock boy (man?) Kurt Warner at QB. At age 28 he had never started an NFL game before.

The odds quickly climbed and bettors could get the Rams at 200-1 at the now long-gone Imperial Palace on the Las Vegas Strip. And that's when Warner began his Hall of Fame career and the Rams became "The Greatest Show on Turf."

That team is a prime reason to check odds way down on the betting boards and not let key injuries automatically scare you away from a team.

This season's long-shot picks

To recap last year's column that ran a week before the season commenced, I didn't foresee the Seahawks or Patriots making any waves, but did profile three teams that made the divisional round of the playoffs 鈥� San Francisco (20-1), Houston (35-1) and Chicago (40-1). The only team mentioned that failed to reach the postseason was Indianapolis at 100-1, but the Colts gave their backers a thrill with an 8-2 start before fading big-time.

Here are the long-shot picks (30-1 or longer) for this year. Odds provided by BetMGM:

Jacksonville Jaguars (30-1)

The Jaguars, behind QB Trevor Lawrence and first-year coach Liam Coen, won their last eight regular-season games in 2025 en route to earning the AFC South title with a 13-4 record, a nine-game improvement over 2024.

And despite their first-place schedule this year, it's easier than that of preseason division favorite Houston based on their foes' estimated wins for 2026.

And it can't hurt that the Jaguars will be taking a bye after returning from two October games in London. From 2022-24 they didn't do that.

At these odds, Jacksonville is worth a gambling look.

Tampa Bay Bucs (50-1)

The Bucs, who lost out via tiebreaker at winning their fifth straight NFC South title last season, are the division favorite with the heaviest Super Bowl odds 鈥� the same as that of Minnesota (50-1), which is forecast to finish last in the NFC North.

And, of course, if Tampa Bay prevails in the weak South it will play host to a first-round playoff game. That's always a good start to the postseason.

And there might not be a more motivated QB this year to prove his worth than Baker Mayfield, whose injury woes late last year contributed to the team finishing with a 2-7 mark after going into their bye at 6-2. He will be playing on an expiring contract.

And on defense, the addition of first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr., a speedy linebacker, should be a boost. He was the Atlanta Coast Conference's Defensive Player of the Year in 2025 with the Miami Hurricanes.

N.Y. Giants (66-1)

Dating to 2002, with the debut of the current division format, there have been 48 teams that have reached the postseason coming off a last-place finish. Twenty-six of them went from worst-to-first. Last year it was New England and Chicago.

This year the Giants, under former Super Bowl-winning coach John Harbaugh, could join the club.

The Giants have a scheduling edge this season by getting to play three games in the first six weeks against teams fresh off a game on foreign soil without taking a bye 鈥� Washington and Houston, who will come from London, and the LA Rams, coming off their journey to Australia. All will be on the road. NYG will be on the road in those matchups.

On top of that, NYG has two home games against teams from out west that will be traveling across three time zones to play in early Sunday jet-lag games. And the Giants will face Jacksonville, which will be playing its third straight road game.

And if QB Jaxson Dart can avoid too many visits to the concussion evaluation tent, the Giants could well be playing meaningful games into the new year.

Now if the Giants can just hang on to leads.

They led the league with four double-digit leads blown in defeats last season, lowlighted by their fourth-quarter collapse in Denver in Week 7 when they squandered a 19-0 advantage in a 33-32 loss. They also fell after having 10-point leads in the fourth quarter vs. Chicago and Detroit.

Triple-digit underdogs

Of the eight big long shots listed at BetMGM, the one that looks most capable of being a playoff threat would be defending NFC South champion Carolina at 100-1.

But that's a shaky pick, especially since they won't have 1,000-yard rusher Rico Dowdle, who's now with Pittsburgh.

Plus, Carolina will be haunted by the Hall of Fame Game curse. No team that has played in the game that originated in 1962 has gone on to win that season's NFL crown.

Bets shared by BetMGM

• $10,000 to win $200,000 on Broncos 20-1 to win Super Bowl

• $10,000 to win $160,000 on Cowboys 16-1 to win NFC Championship

• $10,000 to win $160,000 on Chargers 16-1 to win Super Bowl

• $5,000 to win $330,000 on Giants 66-1 to win Super Bowl

(And this bettor hadn't read this column yet.)

And finally ...

What about this year's Rams, who are the clear Super Bowl favorites at 5-1? No other team has odds shorter than 10-1

Sure, they no doubt have a roster capable of winning their second title the past six seasons. But history isn't on LA's side.

Over the past 30 years there have been 22 teams that went off with 5-1 odds or shorter and none won the title. The last team with such low odds to prevail was Dallas at 3-1 in 1995.

And finally, for real ...

With regard to exhibition games, fans shouldn't be overly joyful if their team had a perfect record this summer or downcast because their heroes lost all their games.

In 2008, Detroit fans had to be at least marginally excited after the Lions were the only team that had a perfect exhibition record (4-0). That team wound up going 0-16 in the regular season.

And conversely, the Rams went 0-3 five years ago and wound up with the Super Bowl trophy. The Super Bowl returns to LA this season.