What bowls could the Lobos play in? Ranking the most and least likely possibilities
UNM players celebrate their 40-35 win over UNLV on Nov. 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Lobos are going bowling.
When and where exactly, remains a question.
New Mexico will learn its bowl destination Sunday after the College Football Playoff (CFP) field is announced. Following a 9-3 regular season under head coach Jason Eck, the Lobos could play one of six bowls with Mountain West tie-ins and affiliations; UNM has not appeared in a bowl since 2016.
A look at how likely some bowls might be for the Lobos heading into Sunday:
Note: The bowl probabilities are listed on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing an impossibility and 10 indicating a sure thing.
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 27)
Probability: 9
Why: New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl is more or less a win-win for everybody involved. From the bowl鈥檚 perspective, UNM is a boon for attendance 鈥 three of the five crowds to surpass 30,000 in the event鈥檚 history were for games featuring the Lobos.
From UNM鈥檚 perspective, the New Mexico Bowl saves the program plenty of time and money in regards to the logistical hassles that usually come with bowl trips. Eck has also said he鈥檚 all-in on the possibility of playing at home one more time this season.
Consider this far and away the most likely destination for the Lobos.
鈥淚 think, for where we are right now, not having been in a bowl game (until) this year, it would be awesome for the program,鈥 Eck said on Nov. 4. 鈥淎nd, you know, I think we鈥檇 have a ton of fans here. Hopefully, that would be a great deal. And we鈥檒l have to be creative to do stuff around that if we鈥檙e in that bowl game, to make it special and fun to our players.
鈥 鈥 Now, I plan on being bowl-eligible a lot over the coming years, so I don鈥檛 know if I鈥檇 want to come to the game three straight years or something. I think we鈥檇 probably want to have some changeup 鈥 But I think it鈥檇 be great for our program, and I think that would help make it easy for our fans to get there obviously.鈥
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl (Dec. 27)
Probability: 2
Why: This probability is slightly higher than some of the other options simply because of the bowl selection process: The LA Bowl has first dibs among Mountain West teams and almost always selects the league champion, unless that team is playing in the CFP. In that case 鈥 and as the LA Bowl did last year 鈥 the second-place team (or team that lost in the title game) would be selected.
From there, ESPN Events 鈥 which owns the New Mexico Bowl, Hawaii Bowl and Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 鈥 gets its first pick. After that, the Arizona Bowl has its selection, and then it goes back to ESPN Events to fill the rest of the necessary slots.
So, here鈥檚 a hypothetical: If Boise State were selected for the LA Bowl and UNLV for an ESPN Events bowl, would the Arizona Bowl take a 9-3 UNM team? Or a 9-3 San Diego State team?
It still feels unlikely that the Lobos will play in anything but the New Mexico Bowl, but there鈥檚 at least a path for UNM to play at Arizona Stadium. Don鈥檛 plan a trip to Tucson quite yet, though.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 22)
Probability: 1
Why: If UNM is to go to an ESPN Events bowl, it鈥檚 awfully hard to see it being anything but the New Mexico Bowl. That being said, another trip to Boise, Idaho isn鈥檛 completely impossible.
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)
Probability: 0
Why: This one鈥檚 already locked up 鈥 Hawaii will play Cal, the bowl announced this week.
Rate Bowl (Dec. 26)
Probability: 0
Why: The Rate Bowl is really a Big Ten-Big 12 bowl, but the Mountain West has first dibs if neither conference can fill their slot. But with plenty of bowl-eligible teams between both leagues this season, it looks like the Big Ten and Big 12 won鈥檛 have any issues filling these slots, even with a few teams headed for the CFP.
Los Angeles Bowl (Dec. 13)
Probability: 0
Why: As outlined above, the Mountain West鈥檚 bid here will go to the league champion, eliminating UNM from another trip to Los Angeles this season.