近距离内射合集

For the last few years, New Mexicans have watched winter storms bypass the state and dump snow and rain elsewhere. This year, forecasters say the Southwest might finally get its turn. 

The reason is El Ni帽o, a weather pattern that normally brings more moisture and cooler temperatures to the Southwest during fall and winter months. Its counterpart is La Ni帽a.

The cycles alternate every two to seven years and vary in severity. La Ni帽a has been around for the past two years, and the last El Ni帽o, albeit a relatively mild one, happened in 2023 and 2024.

The National Weather Service says there is a a 63% chance the coming El Ni帽o is a strong one. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts the event to be very strong.

鈥淚n 2015, we had a strong El Ni帽o and had some pretty strong impacts across the state,鈥� said Scott Overpeck, a meteorologist with the NWS in Albuquerque. 鈥淲hether we鈥檙e going to get that again, it鈥檚 still debatable.鈥�

The 2015-2016 El Ni帽o brought a historic snowstorm to New Mexico, dumping 2 to 6 inches of snow in the Albuquerque metro area from the night of Dec. 26 into the morning of Dec. 27, according to Journal archives. 

This winter, Albuquerque will have a better chance of rain and snow. The southern parts of New Mexico are expected to see the largest increases in snowfall and precipitation due to El Ni帽o. The north-central part of the state may see the slightest increases. 

Water woes

Overpeck said El Ni帽o can have a 鈥減retty big impact on water supply for New Mexico,鈥� which is big news for a state mired in drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor reports 62% of New Mexico is in severe drought, with 21% in extreme drought. 

The amount of drought relief depends on how much tropical activity from the eastern Pacific actually moves to the Southwest. 

鈥淲e happen to be in parts of the world where it's pretty easy to argue that El Ni帽o is a good thing, especially given our current, long-term drought situation,鈥� said David Gutzler, University of New Mexico professor emeritus. 鈥淚 think what鈥檚 going on now is the combination of continental surface heating, water temperatures and so forth that has the system set up to at least improve the odds somewhat.鈥�

The increased fall and winter rains are expected to come after the summer monsoon season, which the NWS predicts will bring above-normal precipitation in the central and eastern portions of the state. 

While above-normal precipitation decreases drought, it also increases the likelihood of flooding. 

For places such as Ruidoso, a community nestled in the mountains of southeastern New Mexico that has been devastated by fires and floods in recent years, the combination of summer monsoons and El Ni帽o makes flooding a threat again.

Burn scars from those wildfires have created barriers to natural drainage, limiting how effectively the ground can absorb water and complicating runoff flow, said Alina Nieves, a meteorologist with the NWS in Santa Teresa. 

Overpeck recommended tracking weather alerts through phones, TV or social media and thinking ahead about specific risks, whether it鈥檚 flooding, cold temperatures or both. 

鈥淚t comes down to a lot of practical preparation that needs to happen and just making sure people have a plan to handle these kinds of situations,鈥� he said. 

Karmina Conde is a reporter for the Journal. You can reach her at kconderuiz@abqjournal.com.