GUEST COLUMN
OPINION: New Mexico energy production on the eve of 9/11
Twenty-five years after the 9/11 attacks, a common narrative is that the attacks caused America to reexamine its consumption of foreign oil, leading to some sort of resurgence of domestic drilling and production.
In New Mexico, the story of oil on the eve of 9/11 is somewhat more complicated.
Although oil production briefly rose after the price-shock of 1990, it generally hovered somewhere between 65 million and 70 million barrels for much of the decade. But New Mexico oil producers faced three significant headwinds. First, American refineries continued to take in more and more oil from abroad through the remainder of the decade. The 3.1 billion barrels of imported oil in 1999 marked a 1-billion-barrel increase over 1990.
Second, economic problems in Asia brought the price of oil down. Japan experienced an economic boom through the production and exportation of many products, such as cars and television sets, until the Nikkei stock exchange experienced a 60% drop from 1989 to 1998.
Third, the import glut and the Asian economic crisis weighed on oil prices. Although American petroleum consumption rose steadily — from 17 million barrels in 1990 to 19.6 million barrels in 2000 — the price of oil failed to keep up with demand. Oil prices fell from $21.76 per barrel in January 1997 to $8.60 per barrel in February 1999. Even during the worst of the 1986-1990 oil bust, the price of oil never fell below $9 per barrel.
Southeastern New Mexico lost 4,000 jobs in oil and other industries in 1998. But New Mexicans on both sides of the aisle tried to bring the price of oil up. This time, however, there was no FDR- Tingley-era production cut to give some sense of false hope. Former U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., proposed buying 28 million barrels of oil at $15 per barrel in July.
And Gary Johnson, who won the 1994 and 1998 governor races, championed the idea that people, not politicians, could best decide New Mexicans’ energy needs. He pushed for the deregulation of electric companies. Coalbed methane technology — which uses water pressure to get natural gas out of coal mines — was responsible for a natural gas boom in San Juan County even as oil production in Lea County stagnated. A natural-gas boom in northwestern New Mexico supplemented established oil fields in the southeastern quadrant. By the time that Johnson took office in January 1995, natural gas production had exceeded 1.6 billion cubic feet, more than double the production totals from 1986. (A typical American home uses 168 cubic feet every day.) Thanks to fiscal conservatism through the veto of more than 700 bills — including some 200 that dealt with increases in the gasoline tax — and cuts to head counts and budgets for state agencies, Johnson was able to balance the budget.
Back in the oil patch, things suddenly turned around. Although New Mexico oil output largely stayed the same as the new millennium began, prices began to rise to levels not seen since the oil bust of 1986. When oil prices rose to a yearly average of $21 per barrel, the result was $956 million in state revenue, a $160 million year-over-year increase from 1998.
Of course, the economic impact of rising oil prices was tempered by yet another brief downturn. An influx of technology companies, such as Intel and America Online, helped reinvent Albuquerque’s economy. With the dot-com bust of 2000, oil and technology traded places in New Mexico’s economic hierarchy.
On the eve of 9/11, New Mexico’s economy featured robust natural gas production, steady oil output and stable prices for both.
Matthew M. Day is an independent scholar/historian from Lubbock, Texas. He is the author of 30 books, including “Lubbock, Levelland, Baghdad, Washington; The Oil Empire That Wasn't Book I,” and “The Oil Empire That Wasn't Book II.” His latest book is "Hubbert's Peak(s)". His website is .