NEWS
Journal Poll: Hull leads in three-way GOP primary race for governor, but many voters still undecided
Roughly 40% of voters surveyed said they're still deciding who to back in June 2 primary election
SANTA FE 鈥 As next month鈥檚 primary election approaches, many New Mexico Republicans still haven鈥檛 decided who to support in the state鈥檚 open race for governor.
A new Journal Poll found former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull leading his two GOP rivals 鈥 Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez 鈥 with 30% support among Republican and independent voters who plan to cast a ballot in the June 2 election.
But 40% of the voters surveyed in the poll said they were still undecided about which candidate to vote for, leaving the race far from decided with early voting set to begin Tuesday.
鈥淩epublican voters are still getting to know their three candidates for governor, so the race is up for grabs,鈥 said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.
None of the three Republican candidates vying for their party鈥檚 nomination have held statewide or congressional office before, which could contribute to their limited name recognition around New Mexico, Sanderoff said.
Turner is a small business owner from Albuquerque who got the support of 21% of voters surveyed in the poll, while Rodriguez, a cannabis entrepreneur and former state Cabinet secretary, received the backing of 9% of voters surveyed.
In addition, the Republican gubernatorial candidates have lagged behind their Democratic counterparts when it comes to campaign fundraising. The three GOP candidates combined had raised roughly $1.5 million as of last month 鈥 or just a fraction of the nearly $11 million raised by Democratic frontrunner Deb Haaland.
While the tone of the race could change in the run-up to Election Day, the three Republicans have so far refrained from attacking one another. They largely agreed on key issues during a televised debate last week, though they did diverge on the future of the state fairgrounds.
New Mexicans have elected two Republicans to the Governor鈥檚 Office in the last 30 years 鈥 Gary Johnson and Susana Martinez 鈥 but the state has trended increasingly Democratic in recent election cycles. The last Republican to win a statewide race was former Supreme Court Justice Judy Nakamura, who did so in 2016.
The winner of the GOP primary will face off against either either Haaland or her fellow Democrat Sam Bregman in the November general election. Independent Ken Miyagishima is also running in the open race, as current Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term.
Differences in regional views
Unlike in the Democratic primary contest, the Journal Poll did not find big swings in voters鈥 preferences in the GOP primary based on their self-described political ideology or education levels.
However, there were significant differences based on region, as Hull had a commanding lead over his Republican rivals in both the Albuquerque metro area and in the state鈥檚 north-central region.
That advantage is likely due to Hull having served as Rio Rancho鈥檚 mayor for 12 years before stepping down last week, Sanderoff said.
But Hull trailed Turner among voters who live in eastern New Mexico, a traditionally conservative part of the state where the agriculture and oil industries play outsized roles. Roughly 27% of eastern New Mexico voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Turner, compared to 19% for Hull. Meanwhile, in the Las Cruces/southwestern New Mexico region, more than half the voters were still undecided.
As for gender differences, both male and female voters were more likely to support Hull than either Turner or Rodriguez, but women were more narrowly split than were men.
This year鈥檚 primary election marks New Mexico鈥檚 first-ever semi-open primary, under a law approved last year that allows independent voters to cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their party affiliation.
While independent voters, or those who decline to affiliate with a political party, have seen their numbers grow in recent months and now make up roughly 26% of New Mexico鈥檚 total voting population, it鈥檚 unclear how many of them will ultimately vote in the June primary election.
For that reason, Republicans made up 90% of the Journal Poll鈥檚 sample size, with independents who said they planned to cast a ballot in the GOP primary making up the remaining 10% of the sample.
Rodriguez posted a stronger showing among those independent voters than he did among registered Republicans, as 14% of such voters surveyed said they planned to vote for the political outsider who has eschewed the GOP establishment and already reported giving $500,000 of his own money to his campaign.
In contrast, support levels did not vary for Hull and Turner based on party affiliation.
Methodology
The Journal Poll was conducted from April 24 to May 1. It is based on a statewide random sample of 477 registered Republicans who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Republican primary elections, and a sample of Republicans who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The poll also included 51 independent (or unaffiliated) voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Republican primary election.
The total sample is 528, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity, county and age, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely primary election voters were used.
Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on Twitter at or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.
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