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SANTA FE 鈥� With early voting set to begin in just over a week, Deb Haaland is in strong position to win the Democratic Party鈥檚 nomination in New Mexico鈥檚 open race for governor, a new Journal Poll found.

The Journal Poll found 52% of proven Democratic and independent voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Haaland, while 30% expressed support for her primary election foe Sam Bregman. The remaining voters were undecided.

Strong support among women, Anglos and self-reported liberal voters was key to Haaland鈥檚 lead in the poll, with highly-educated voters also backing Haaland by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

鈥淚t appears as if Deb Haaland鈥檚 progressive policies work to her advantage in a Democratic primary,鈥� said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.

鈥淚 think many Democrats are excited about the prospect of having the first Native American female governor in the nation,鈥� Sanderoff added.

Haaland, the former U.S. interior secretary under President Joe Biden and a former congresswoman, launched her campaign for governor in February 2025 and has reported raising more than $11.1 million in her bid to succeed outgoing Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. 

But she has not had an easy stroll to the Democratic Party鈥檚 nomination, as Bregman has criticized Haaland for not participating in more televised debates and for posting information on her campaign website about properties owned by Bregman, who is currently the Bernalillo County district attorney.

Bregman has tried to position himself as a more moderate alternative to Haaland in this year鈥檚 primary race, Sanderoff said, but has struggled to make inroads among more liberal voters.

While Bregman led Haaland among voters surveyed in New Mexico鈥檚 east side, which tends to be more conservative, he trailed well behind his Democratic opponent in the more highly-populated Albuquerque metro area, and in the traditional Democratic stronghold of north central New Mexico.

The combative showdown is playing out in New Mexico鈥檚 first-ever semi-open primary, under a law approved last year that allows independent voters to cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary without having to change their party affiliation.

Independent voters, or those who decline to affiliate with a political party, have seen their ranks swell in recent months and now make up roughly 26% of New Mexico鈥檚 total number of registered voters. But it鈥檚 unclear how many independent voters will cast ballots in the June 2 primary race, as their turnout has lagged behind Democrats and Republicans in recent election cycles.

For that reason, Democrats made up 88% of the Journal Poll鈥檚 sample size, with independents who said they planned to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary making up the remaining 12% of the sample.

鈥淚f more independents vote, the race will narrow,鈥� Sanderoff said, referring to the gubernatorial primary race.

Gender, education level among key factors 

While Haaland led in the Journal Poll among both male and female voters, her support was particularly strong among women, who preferred her over Bregman by a 2-to-1 margin.

If she wins election in November, Haaland would be the third consecutive woman to hold the state鈥檚 highest elected office, following Lujan Grisham and Republican ex-Gov. Susana Martinez. No woman had been elected governor in New Mexico before Martinez did so in 2010.

Meanwhile, the Journal Poll also found Anglo voters were much more likely to back Haaland than were Hispanic voters, who were more narrowly divided in their views.

There was also a notable difference among surveyed voters by education level, as 59% of voters with a college or graduate degree said they planned to vote for Haaland, compared to just 25% who expressed support for Bregman.

Bregman鈥檚 support levels were higher among voters without a college degree, though he still trailed behind Haaland among such voters.

When it came to voters鈥� political ideology, Haaland had a commanding lead among self-described progressive and liberal voters, with the support of 65% of such voters 鈥� compared to just 24% for Bregman.

Haaland has vowed to push back against President Donald Trump鈥檚 policies if elected governor, with her campaign鈥檚 saying she would 鈥渟tand up to the billionaires rigging the system against us.鈥� 

Bregman, who has touted his in his TV ads, has fared better among self-described moderates and conservatives who plan to vote in the Democratic primary.

He鈥檚 also ratcheted up the attacks against Haaland in recent weeks, highlighting his opponent鈥檚 appearance in the Epstein files due to a private flight she took in 2014 while running on the Democratic gubernatorial ticket with Gary King.

Haaland鈥檚 campaign has dismissed the insinuations as a 鈥渇alse attack,鈥� insisting she did not know the plane was chartered by Epstein and had no relationship with the disgraced financier, who died in 2019. 

Whoever wins the Democratic primary race will face off against the victor of a three-way Republican primary in the November general election. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima is also running as an independent, and other unaffiliated or minor party candidates could file to run this summer.

Methodology

The Journal Poll was conducted from April 17 to April 24. It is based on a statewide random sample of 470 registered Democrats who cast ballots in the 2020, 2022, and/or 2024 Democratic Primary elections, and a sample of Democrats who registered to vote since January 2025, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The poll also included 64 independent (or unaffiliated) voters with proven voter history, who said they are very likely to vote in the upcoming Democratic Primary election.

The total sample is 534, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by education level, based on traditional voting patterns to ensure a more representative sample.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely Primary election voters were used.

Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on Twitter at @DanBoydNM or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.