NEWS
Revenue estimate: High oil prices due to Iran war mean $924 million in ‘new’ money for New Mexico
Projected revenue growth could bolster state trust funds, prompt debates about financial relief
SANTA FE — A simmering military conflict more than 7,000 miles away is driving New Mexico revenue collections to unprecedented levels.
Due in large part to connected to the U.S.-Iran war, New Mexico is projected to take in $14.8 billion in revenue during the coming budget year, according to new estimates released Wednesday.
That means lawmakers — and the state’s next governor — could have $924.2 million in “new” money to spend in the coming year, though uncertain economic conditions could cause that amount to fluctuate. New money represents the difference between current total spending and projected revenue.
“Times are great right now, but they won’t always be great,” Rep. Derrick Lente, D-Sandia Pueblo, said during a Wednesday meeting of the Legislative Finance Committee in Farmington.
The surging revenue levels — the projected revenue amount for this year is $618 million higher than it was in December — could also mean hefty infusions into several state trust funds established in recent years. That includes an early childhood trust fund that’s been tapped to help pay for Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s universal child care initiative.
Already, the state has roughly $75 billion invested in its various endowment funds, most of which provide yearly distributions to help pay for public schools and other state programs.
“That additional funding is now flowing into our savings accounts,” state Taxation and Revenue Secretary Stephanie Schardin Clarke told lawmakers during Wednesday’s hearing.
However, state officials also cautioned the surging revenue levels could obscure trouble spots in New Mexico’s economy.
That includes high inflation rates and a labor force participation rate of 56.9% as of June, a figure that remains below the state’s pre-pandemic peak, according to LFC data.
Legislative Finance Committee Chief Economist Ismael Torres said the state’s economy is “struggling to find its footing” but has shown resilience amid uncertainty over tariffs and federal government spending.
He also said nearly 40% of the state’s total general fund revenue stems from sources that are not a direct tax burden on New Mexicans — namely investment income and oil and gas revenues. Without those revenue sources, state taxes on residents would have to be higher in order to maintain current spending levels, Torres said.
Meanwhile, New Mexico’s ongoing revenue growth comes as several other western states are weathering budget shortfalls.
In neighboring Colorado, for instance, lawmakers were forced to and enact other cost-saving measures earlier this year in response to a budget crunch.
Revenue windfall could prompt debate
New Mexico’s latest revenue surge — revenue levels have more than doubled since 2018 — could reignite a debate at the Roundhouse over how the money should be spent.
High gas prices prompted Lujan Grisham last month to propose rebates of $250 per taxpayer. But that plan has gotten a tepid response from gubernatorial candidates — Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull — and many state lawmakers.
Instead, GOP legislators, along with some Democrats, have proposed the more drastic step of eliminating the state’s personal income tax code to provide lasting financial relief to taxpayers.
There are that do not have an income tax system, including Texas, Nevada and South Dakota.
“I’m just wondering when we have enough in our coffers to decide that New Mexico’s working citizens and retirees that have disposable income are worthy of having the ability to stay in our state,” Rep. Rebecca Dow, R-Truth or Consequences, said during Wednesday’s hearing. “It just doesn’t seem like it’s ever enough.”
But Schardin Clarke argued against such a move, saying a repeal of the personal income tax code would primarily benefit New Mexico’s wealthiest residents and would also eliminate various tax breaks intended to help low-income families.
A 2025 bill that sought to repeal the state’s personal income tax would have eventually cost the state more than $4 billion per year in forgone revenue, according to .
Meanwhile, prices at the pump remain high for New Mexico commuters, with a statewide average price of as of Wednesday, according to AAA data.
Outgoing governor’s cash drawdown
While Lujan Grisham will step down at the end of this year after concluding her second term as governor, she could still have an impact on next year’s budget decisions.
That’s because the Democratic governor has issued a deluge of executive orders, primarily in response to wildfires and floods across New Mexico, that have reduced the amount of money available for other purposes.
That includes 12 orders issued this month in response to the Frijoles Fire in northern New Mexico that, combined, have authorized nearly $9 million in emergency spending.
With the governor already having authorized the spending of roughly $155 million this year via executive order, that means the amount of new money available to lawmakers next year could be reduced accordingly, Torres said.
The Lujan Grisham administration is not expected to issue a budget plan for the coming year before the governor leaves office, but the governor said Wednesday the state was positioned for success.
“New Mexico planned for this by building reserves when times were good and investing in programs that help improve the lives of New Mexicans, including universal child care, expanded health care access and enhanced educational opportunities,” Lujan Grisham said in a statement. “We made sure that the next administration inherits a state that’s financially sound.”
Whoever is elected as New Mexico’s next governor will take office just weeks before the start of next year’s 60-day legislative session, during which lawmakers will be tasked with approving a new state budget.
Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on X at @DanBoydNM or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.