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NEWS

Journal Poll: Democrats lead in five statewide races

Democratic incumbents seeking reelection in three of five down-ballot races

New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez, left, and Republican candidate Samuel Isaiah Kane Sr., right.
Published Modified

Democratic candidates lead in a series of statewide races in New Mexico, with Attorney General Raúl Torrez showing the largest advantage in his bid for a second term, according to a Journal Poll.

Torrez, one of three Democratic incumbents seeking reelection to state constitutional offices this year, showed a 17-percentage-point advantage over his Republican challenger, Samuel Isaiah Kane Sr., according to a scientific poll conducted Aug. 21-28 by Research & Polling Inc.

In 2018 and 2022, Democrats swept every statewide race in New Mexico.

Democrats enjoy a built-in advantage in down-ballot races, with 40% of state voters registered with the Democratic Party. About 31% are Republican and the remainder are independents, Libertarians or members of other parties.

"In these low-profile races where oftentimes voters are not familiar with the candidates, they often fall back onto their party registration or their party preference, and that explains a lot," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc.

Attorney general race

Torrez, who first won the race for attorney general in 2022 after serving as district attorney in Bernalillo County, had support from 51% of likely voters, compared with 34% for Kane, a Las Cruces attorney.

Torrez has the advantage of broad name recognition after leading a successful lawsuit against social media giant Meta that ended this year with a $942 million judgement against the company.

"Over the past year, Raúl Torrez has been the most visible state elected official," Sanderoff said. "Name recognition plays a big role in these races. In all likelihood, Raúl Torrez will probably lead the ticket for the Democrats, including governor or senator."

Secretary of state race

In the contest for an open seat for secretary of state, Democrat Amanda Askin was up by 12 percentage points over her Republican opponent, Ramona Goolsby, who ran unopposed in the GOP primary.

Askin, who has served as the Doña Ana County Clerk since September 2018, had support from 47% of voters compared with 35% support for Goolsby, a rancher and member of the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors.

The winner will succeed Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who will step down as the state's chief election official with her second term expiring this year.

Commissioner of public lands race

In the race for an open seat to head the New Mexico State Land Office, Democrat Juan De Jesus Sanchez III had a 13-percentage-point advantage over Republican Michael Perry, a member of the Chaves County Commission.

Sanchez and Perry are vying to fill the seat left by Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, who is the Democratic nominee this year for lieutenant governor. The Land Office manages mineral rights and grazing leases for millions of acres of state trust land.

Sanchez, a former political director for U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., drew support from 48% of voters polled, compared with 35% for Perry, who performed habitat management for the Land Office from 2016 to 2019.

Race for auditor

Democrat Joseph Maestas, the incumbent state auditor, was up by 13 percentage points over Republican Joshua James Lawrence, who ran unopposed in the GOP primary.

Maestas, a former Española mayor and former member of the Public Regulation Commission, claimed 47% support from likely voters compared with 34% for Lawrence.

Race for treasurer

Democrat Laura Montoya, the incumbent and former Sandoval County treasurer, had a nine-percentage-point advantage over her Republican challenger, James Ellison, a former Public Regulation Commission member.

Montoya had support from 46% of likely voters while Ellison drew support from 37%.

Methodology

The Journal Poll was conducted from Aug. 21 through Aug. 28. It is based on a statewide random sample of 516 voters who cast ballots in the 2022 and/or 2024 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2025 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The total sample of 516 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by party affiliation, gender and education level based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely general election voters were used.

Olivier Uyttebrouck covers the court system. You can reach him at olivier@abqjournal.com.