ELECTION 2026
Journal Poll: US Sen. Ben Ray Luján has comfortable lead in reelection campaign
Incumbent Democrat holds 53-38 advantage over Republican opponent Larry Marker
SANTA FE — Incumbent U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a big lead over his Republican challenger and appears on track to win reelection in November, a new Journal Poll found.
About 53% of likely voters surveyed in the poll said they planned to vote for Luján, while 38% said they would vote for GOP candidate Larry Marker of Roswell.
Luján, the son of former New Mexico House Speaker Ben Luján, who died in 2012, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2020 after six terms in the U.S. House representing a northern New Mexico-based congressional district.
He suffered in January 2022 that caused him to be hospitalized and undergo surgery. He has since recovered and emerged as an advocate for stroke prevention and treatment efforts.
His built-up political profile helps Luján in his reelection campaign against Marker, who is largely unknown to most state voters, said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.
“I don’t think anyone would be surprised that Ben Ray Luján holds a comfortable lead,” Sanderoff said.
In this year’s election cycle, Luján easily rebuffed a primary challenge from fellow Democrat Matt Dodson of Farmington in June.
It appeared he might face no general election opposition, after former Gov. Gary Johnson decided not to run against Luján and another GOP candidate was disqualified.
But Marker, a Roswell resident who ran unsuccessfully for other elected offices in 2022 and 2024, was able to qualify for the general election ballot by running as a write-in candidate in June.
His upstart campaign faces big challenges, however, as Luján holds a significant fundraising advantage and strong support among Democratic voters.
The incumbent also has the support of most independent voters, as 56% of independents surveyed said they planned to vote for Luján. A total of 25% of independents said they would vote for Marker, while the remaining independents were undecided.
Meanwhile, the poll’s margin was significantly wider than Luján’s margin of victory in 2020, when he defeated Republican Mark Ronchetti by just 6 percentage points — or roughly 56,000 votes.
Trump effect could impact race
While President Donald Trump is not on the ballot on this fall, the president’s shadow could loom large in this year’s U.S. Senate race in New Mexico.
A separate Journal Poll found only 32% of New Mexico voters approve of Trump’s job performance as president, while 61% expressed disapproval.
Among those voters who disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 82% said they plan to vote for Luján in this year’s Senate race, while just 9% said they plan to support Marker.
In contrast, 92% of New Mexico voters who support Trump’s job performance said they intended to vote for the GOP nominee in the U.S. Senate race. Just 5% of such voters said they plan to vote for Luján.
“As a Republican, Marker is battling against the unpopularity of President Trump in New Mexico,” Sanderoff said.
The Journal Poll also showed Luján with a sizable advantage among Hispanic voters and among women. Anglo voters and men were more narrowly split, though they both narrowly preferred Luján over Marker.
The Republican challenger did lead the incumbent Democrat in northwest New Mexico and among votes who live in the state’s conservative east side. But those gains were more than outweighed by Luján’s strong advantage in the Albuquerque metro area and in north central New Mexico.
Methodology
The Journal Poll was conducted from Aug. 21 through Aug. 28. It is based on a statewide random sample of 516 voters who cast ballots in the 2022 and/or 2024 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2025 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The total sample of 516 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by party affiliation, gender and education level based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely general election voters were used.
Dan Boyd covers state government and politics for the Journal in Santa Fe. Follow him on X at or reach him via email at dboyd@abqjournal.com.
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